The focus of the Centro Studi Confindustria hearing on the DFP 2025 was mainly on the consequences of the US duties.

Exports to the US, which drives 7% of Italian manufacturing output directly and indirectly, have made the largest contribution to the increase in exports over the past five years. Trump's decision on tariffs is historic and implies a profound revision of the trade and production structure at global level.

Confindustria's GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are not far from those of the DFP. But with DFP at 20%, according to the CSC, GDP growth would be lower (0.3% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026). In this scenario, companies postpone investments due to weak demand, high credit costs and widespread uncertainty. Italian industry, which was stabilising after a long crisis, will drop again with the duties.  

To tackle this complex phase, Confindustria proposes:

• a productive investment plan both to cope with the current downturn and to support demand;

• an export diversification strategy, concluding trade alliancesparticularly Mercosur;

• a strengthening of the attractiveness of Europe and Italy,  through the completion of the single market, cutting red tape, harmonisation of rules.